RWU and WPRI Announce First Poll Results in 2022 R.I. Governor’s, Congressional Races

As this election year gets underway, Democratic Rhode Island Gov. Daniel McKee is slightly leading in the polls among Democratic primary voters, according to a new Roger Williams University/WPRI 12 poll released on Tuesday, May 17.

While McKee has 25 percent of the vote among those polled, and the next leading Democratic candidate, R.I. Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, has 23 percent, a larger majority of the voters, at 37 percent, said they were not sure yet for whom they would vote. Of the other candidates, Matt Brown received 7 percent; Helena Foulkes received 6 percent; and Luis Daniel Muñoz received 2 percent of the vote.

The Fleming & Associates polling firm conducted the survey of 400 likely Rhode Island Democratic primary voters statewide from May 9-12. Among those surveyed, 250 likely Rhode Island Democratic primary voters residing in the 2nd Congressional District were polled about the 2nd Congressional District race. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.9 percentage points. The survey of the Congressional race has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus approximately 6.2 percentage points.

“Right now, we’re showing a statistical dead heat between McKee and Sec. Gorbea. But the Governor’s race remains wide open because we found that 37 percent of voters are undecided in the primary,” said veteran pollster Joseph Fleming. “And part of that is because none of the candidates had started doing strong voter contact yet at the time of the survey and some of them are not that well known.

“Once the candidates’ campaign media starts, I would expect these numbers to change over next few months. I look at these numbers as starting point for the candidates, and from now to the end it can change very greatly,” Fleming said.

R.I. Treasurer Seth Magaziner holds a large, early lead as the Democratic nominee for Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, according to poll results.

Among a field of seven candidates for the seat, Magaziner received 33 percent of support from Democratic primary voters who were polled. However, 50 percent polled said they weren’t sure yet for whom they would vote.

Of the other candidates, 1 percent supported Omar Bah, 4 percent supported Joy Fox, 1 percent supported Cameron Moquin, 4 percent supported Sarah Morgenthau, and 5 percent supported David Segal. One percent supported Michael Neary, who has since dropped out of the race.

“At this point, these numbers tell me [voters] don’t really know most of the candidates. Seth magazine who is leading race has run twice and is better known among the candidates, while the other people are not household names, and that’s why we’re seeing a lot of undecided voters at this point,”said Fleming.

After one year in office, Gov. McKee’s approval rating is split down the middle for Democratic primary voters, with 44 percent saying he’s doing an excellent or good job, while 45 percent say he’s doing just fair or a poor job, according to poll results. President Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 60 percent of those polled saying he’s doing an excellent or good job, while 37 percent say he’s doing just fair or a poor job.

The Lieutenant Governor’s seat is also anyone’s race at this point, the poll found. More than 53 percent of Democratic primary voters remain undecided, while 21 percent support R.I. Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, 12 percent support State Sen. Cynthia Mendes, and 13 percent support State Rep. Deborah Ruggiero.

When asked what they see as the most important issue in this election, 36 percent chose cost of living, followed by healthcare at 18 percent, education at 13 percent, taxes at 12 percent, Covid-19 at 5 percent, and public safety at 3 percent.

“This says to me that Democratic primary voters are really concerned about the cost of living: Gas is going up, groceries are going up, and there’s no sign of it coming down,” Fleming said. “It especially stands out with young voters and independent voters as the most important issue.”

Ninety-one percent of Democratic primary voters believe the cost of buying or renting a home in Rhode Island is a serious problem, according to poll results.

The poll found that 60 percent saw it as a very serious issue and 31 percent as a somewhat serious issue, while only 7 percent rated it as not too serious or not a serious problem. There was little difference in opinion among the age groups polled, and at least 89 percent of the primary voters across the sub-groups said it is a problem.

“I’m a little surprised it’s that high, but also not surprised. Democratic primary voters are concerned about housing issues, and prices have skyrocketed to buy or rent a house right now,”said Fleming.

Full results are available here: https://www.wpri.com/democratic-primary-poll-results/

Slightly more Democratic primary voters in Rhode Island would rather see another Democratic candidate other than President Joe Biden on the presidential ballot in two years, according to a Roger Williams University/WPRI 12 poll released on Wednesday, May 18.

The Fleming & Associates polling firm conducted the survey of 400 likely Rhode Island Democratic primary voters statewide from May 9-12. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.9 percentage points.

The poll found that 41 percent would rather see someone else run for president, while 40 percent supported Biden for re-election. Seventeen percent said they weren’t sure if they supported Biden or would want someone else as the Democratic nominee in 2024.

Veteran pollster Joseph Fleming was surprised by these results, especially when the same poll put Biden’s approval rating at 60 percent among Democratic primary voters.

“You’re talking about Democratic primary voters, and you would expect to see higher numbers of support for Biden’s re-election,” Fleming said.

Instead, the results showed that primary voters are divided in whether they would want Biden to seek a second term.

“It doesn’t mean these people will not vote for President Biden. It means that many would like to see someone else run than Biden, but I think they would likely vote for him if he is the nominee,” Fleming said.

Biden’s strongest support in this poll were from people over the age of 50 (50 percent) and from Democrats (46 percent).

“But those numbers aren’t that strong either. Right now, it’s a split decision,” Fleming said. “A good follow-up question would be, why don’t you want him to run? And we don’t know the reason why.”

Full results are available here: https://www.wpri.com/democratic-primary-poll-results/